Today's slate 2026-07-30
Cubs @ Cardinals
2026-07-30
Model line: Cardinals +1.43
(expected margin -1.43)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals (H) | 47.3% | +111 | -120 dr | -13.3% | +1.5 -204 | 58.0% | -13.6% |
| Cubs | 52.7% | -111 | +100 dr |
+5.4%
1.3%K
|
-1.5 +167 | 42.0% | +12.2% |
Cardinals: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Cubs: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Mariners @ Dodgers
2026-07-30
Model line: Dodgers -0.59
(expected margin +0.59)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (H) | 53.6% | -116 | -156 dr | -12.0% | -1.5 +135 | 37.5% | -11.9% |
| Mariners | 46.4% | +116 | +129 dr |
+6.2%
1.2%K
|
+1.5 -163 | 62.5% | +0.9% |
Rangers @ Rays
2026-07-30
Model line: Rays -1.01
(expected margin +1.01)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (H) | 54.9% | -122 | -131 dr | -3.1% | -1.5 +168 | 38.9% | +4.3% |
| Rangers | 45.1% | +122 | +109 dr | -5.8% | +1.5 -206 | 61.1% | -9.3% |
Rays: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Rays: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Rays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals @ Braves
2026-07-30
Model line: Braves -0.88
(expected margin +0.88)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (H) | 54.5% | -120 | -150 dr | -9.1% | -1.5 +134 | 38.5% | -9.9% |
| Nationals | 45.5% | +120 | +124 dr |
+1.9%
0.4%K
|
+1.5 -162 | 61.5% | -0.5% |
Braves: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Braves: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins @ Mets
2026-07-30
Model line: Mets -0.58
(expected margin +0.58)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets (H) | 53.6% | -116 | -131 dr | -5.5% | -1.5 +168 | 37.5% | +0.5% |
| Marlins | 46.4% | +116 | +109 dr | -3.0% | +1.5 -206 | 62.5% | -7.1% |
Mets: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Mets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Pirates @ Reds
2026-07-30
Model line: Reds +1.64
(expected margin -1.64)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds (H) | 46.7% | +114 | -103 dr | -8.0% | +1.5 -163 | 57.3% | -7.6% |
| Pirates | 53.3% | -114 | -117 dr | -1.1% | -1.5 +135 | 42.7% | +0.4% |
Pirates: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Yankees @ White Sox
2026-07-30
Model line: White Sox -0.20
(expected margin +0.20)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox (H) | 52.4% | -110 | -114 dr | -1.6% | +1.5 -190 | 63.5% | -3.1% |
| Yankees | 47.6% | +110 | -106 dr | -7.5% | -1.5 +156 | 36.5% | -6.5% |
Royals @ Twins
2026-07-30
Model line: Twins -1.07
(expected margin +1.07)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins (H) | 55.1% | -123 | -143 dr | -6.4% | -1.5 +139 | 39.1% | -6.5% |
| Royals | 44.9% | +123 | +119 dr | -1.7% | +1.5 -168 | 60.9% | -2.9% |
Royals: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Giants @ Padres
2026-07-30
Model line: Padres -0.41
(expected margin +0.41)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (H) | 53.1% | -113 | -131 dr | -6.4% | -1.5 +158 | 36.9% | -4.8% |
| Giants | 46.9% | +113 | +109 dr | -1.9% | +1.5 -193 | 63.1% | -4.2% |
Padres: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Padres: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Padres: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox @ Athletics
2026-07-30
Model line: Athletics +3.36
(expected margin -3.36)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics (H) | 41.4% | +142 | +135 dr | -2.8% | +1.5 -120 | 51.2% | -6.1% |
| Red Sox | 58.6% | -142 | -163 dr | -5.4% | -1.5 +100 | 48.8% | -2.5% |
Yankees @ Cubs
2026-07-31
Model line: Cubs +0.13
(expected margin -0.13)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs (H) | 51.4% | -106 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yankees | 48.6% | +106 | — | — | — | — | — |
Cubs: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Pirates @ Reds
2026-07-31
Model line: Reds +0.65
(expected margin -0.65)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds (H) | 49.8% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pirates | 50.2% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Pirates: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Phillies @ Orioles
2026-07-31
Model line: Orioles -1.64
(expected margin +1.64)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles (H) | 56.9% | -132 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phillies | 43.1% | +132 | — | — | — | — | — |
Orioles: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Phillies: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Cardinals @ Blue Jays
2026-07-31
Model line: Blue Jays +0.63
(expected margin -0.63)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays (H) | 49.8% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cardinals | 50.2% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Blue Jays: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Blue Jays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Cardinals: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Diamondbacks @ Guardians
2026-07-31
Model line: Guardians +0.54
(expected margin -0.54)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians (H) | 50.1% | -100 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diamondbacks | 49.9% | +100 | — | — | — | — | — |
Guardians: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Diamondbacks: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Diamondbacks: Back-to-back — played yesterday
White Sox @ Rays
2026-07-31
Model line: Rays -1.14
(expected margin +1.14)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (H) | 55.3% | -124 | — | — | — | — | — |
| White Sox | 44.7% | +124 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rays: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Rays: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Rays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins @ Mets
2026-07-31
Model line: Mets -0.02
(expected margin +0.02)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets (H) | 51.9% | -108 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlins | 48.1% | +108 | — | — | — | — | — |
Mets: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Mets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals @ Braves
2026-07-31
Model line: Braves +1.08
(expected margin -1.08)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (H) | 48.4% | +107 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nationals | 51.6% | -107 | — | — | — | — | — |
Braves: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Braves: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Rangers @ Astros
2026-07-31
Model line: Astros -0.30
(expected margin +0.30)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (H) | 52.7% | -111 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rangers | 47.3% | +111 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Royals @ Rockies
2026-07-31
Model line: Rockies -1.87
(expected margin +1.87)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies (H) | 57.6% | -136 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Royals | 42.4% | +136 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rockies: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Royals: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Brewers @ Angels
2026-07-31
Model line: Angels +1.29
(expected margin -1.29)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels (H) | 47.7% | +109 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brewers | 52.3% | -109 | — | — | — | — | — |
Brewers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Tigers @ Athletics
2026-07-31
Model line: Athletics +2.12
(expected margin -2.12)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics (H) | 45.2% | +121 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tigers | 54.8% | -121 | — | — | — | — | — |
Tigers: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Tigers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants @ Padres
2026-07-31
Model line: Padres -0.33
(expected margin +0.33)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (H) | 52.8% | -112 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giants | 47.2% | +112 | — | — | — | — | — |
Padres: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Padres: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Padres: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox @ Dodgers
2026-07-31
Model line: Dodgers +0.57
(expected margin -0.57)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (H) | 50.0% | -100 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Red Sox | 50.0% | +100 | — | — | — | — | — |
Twins @ Mariners
2026-07-31
Model line: Mariners -1.27
(expected margin +1.27)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners (H) | 55.7% | -126 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Twins | 44.3% | +126 | — | — | — | — | — |
Cardinals @ Blue Jays
2026-08-01
Model line: Blue Jays +1.14
(expected margin -1.14)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays (H) | 48.2% | +107 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cardinals | 51.8% | -107 | — | — | — | — | — |
Blue Jays: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Blue Jays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Cardinals: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Twins @ Mariners
2026-08-01
Model line: Mariners -1.12
(expected margin +1.12)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners (H) | 55.3% | -123 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Twins | 44.7% | +123 | — | — | — | — | — |
White Sox @ Rays
2026-08-01
Model line: Rays -1.14
(expected margin +1.14)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (H) | 55.3% | -124 | — | — | — | — | — |
| White Sox | 44.7% | +124 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rays: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Rays: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Rays: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins @ Mets
2026-08-01
Model line: Mets -0.56
(expected margin +0.56)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets (H) | 53.5% | -115 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlins | 46.5% | +115 | — | — | — | — | — |
Mets: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Mets: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Marlins: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Pirates @ Reds
2026-08-01
Model line: Reds +0.77
(expected margin -0.77)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds (H) | 49.4% | +103 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pirates | 50.6% | -103 | — | — | — | — | — |
Pirates: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Phillies @ Orioles
2026-08-01
Model line: Orioles +0.05
(expected margin -0.05)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles (H) | 51.6% | -107 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phillies | 48.4% | +107 | — | — | — | — | — |
Orioles: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Phillies: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Rangers @ Astros
2026-08-01
Model line: Astros +1.27
(expected margin -1.27)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (H) | 47.8% | +109 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rangers | 52.2% | -109 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rangers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Diamondbacks @ Guardians
2026-08-01
Model line: Guardians -1.45
(expected margin +1.45)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guardians (H) | 56.3% | -129 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diamondbacks | 43.7% | +129 | — | — | — | — | — |
Guardians: Running cold — results trailing xG (bounce-back candidate)
Diamondbacks: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Diamondbacks: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals @ Braves
2026-08-01
Model line: Braves -0.99
(expected margin +0.99)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves (H) | 54.9% | -122 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nationals | 45.1% | +122 | — | — | — | — | — |
Braves: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Braves: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Nationals: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Yankees @ Cubs
2026-08-01
Model line: Cubs +1.44
(expected margin -1.44)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs (H) | 47.3% | +112 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yankees | 52.7% | -112 | — | — | — | — | — |
Cubs: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Royals @ Rockies
2026-08-01
Model line: Rockies -0.22
(expected margin +0.22)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies (H) | 52.5% | -110 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Royals | 47.5% | +110 | — | — | — | — | — |
Rockies: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Royals: xG form ↓ — playing below season level
Giants @ Padres
2026-08-01
Model line: Padres +0.07
(expected margin -0.07)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres (H) | 51.6% | -106 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giants | 48.4% | +106 | — | — | — | — | — |
Padres: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Padres: Running hot — results outpacing xG (regression risk)
Padres: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Giants: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Red Sox @ Dodgers
2026-08-01
Model line: Dodgers +0.57
(expected margin -0.57)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers (H) | 50.0% | -100 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Red Sox | 50.0% | +100 | — | — | — | — | — |
Brewers @ Angels
2026-08-01
Model line: Angels +0.49
(expected margin -0.49)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels (H) | 50.3% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brewers | 49.7% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Brewers: Back-to-back — played yesterday
Tigers @ Athletics
2026-08-01
Model line: Athletics +0.62
(expected margin -0.62)
| Team | Win % | Fair ML | ML (book) | ML EV | Run line | Cover % | RL EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics (H) | 49.8% | +101 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tigers | 50.2% | -101 | — | — | — | — | — |
Tigers: xG form ↑ — playing above season level
Tigers: Back-to-back — played yesterday