season 2026

Prediction accuracy

Models compared

ModelScoredWinner acc BrierLog lossRun-margin MAE
Run margin 1547 54.5% 0.2507 0.6962 3.68
Expected runs (xwOBA) 1547 52.7% 0.2509 0.6955 3.63

Lower Brier / log loss = better-calibrated probabilities; accuracy is a coarse tiebreak. Judge model changes by the walk-forward backtest, not in-sample fit.

Detail — xwoba model

1547
Games scored
52.7%
Winner accuracy
0.251
Brier score
0.695
Log loss
3.63
Run-margin abs error

Rolling 20-game winner accuracy

Table view
DateRolling accuracy
2026-03-31100.0%
2026-03-3150.0%
2026-03-3133.3%
2026-03-3150.0%
2026-03-3160.0%
2026-03-3150.0%
2026-03-3157.1%
2026-03-3162.5%
2026-03-3166.7%
2026-03-3170.0%
2026-03-3172.7%
2026-03-3175.0%
2026-03-3176.9%
2026-03-3178.6%
2026-04-0180.0%
2026-04-0175.0%
2026-04-0170.6%
2026-04-0166.7%
2026-04-0163.2%
2026-04-0165.0%
2026-04-0160.0%
2026-04-0165.0%
2026-04-0170.0%
2026-04-0165.0%
2026-04-0165.0%
2026-04-0165.0%
2026-04-0165.0%
2026-04-0160.0%
2026-04-0155.0%
2026-04-0255.0%
2026-04-0250.0%
2026-04-0245.0%
2026-04-0345.0%
2026-04-0345.0%
2026-04-0345.0%
2026-04-0350.0%
2026-04-0355.0%
2026-04-0355.0%
2026-04-0355.0%
2026-04-0350.0%
2026-04-0350.0%
2026-04-0350.0%
2026-04-0350.0%
2026-04-0355.0%
2026-04-0355.0%
2026-04-0360.0%
2026-04-0460.0%
2026-04-0465.0%
2026-04-0470.0%
2026-04-0470.0%
2026-04-0470.0%
2026-04-0470.0%
2026-04-0465.0%
2026-04-0465.0%
2026-04-0465.0%
2026-04-0460.0%
2026-04-0455.0%
2026-04-0460.0%
2026-04-0465.0%
2026-04-0465.0%
2026-04-0570.0%
2026-04-0570.0%
2026-04-0565.0%
2026-04-0565.0%
2026-04-0560.0%
2026-04-0560.0%
2026-04-0555.0%
2026-04-0550.0%
2026-04-0550.0%
2026-04-0545.0%
2026-04-0545.0%
2026-04-0550.0%
2026-04-0550.0%
2026-04-0545.0%
2026-04-0540.0%
2026-04-0645.0%
2026-04-0645.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0635.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0645.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0635.0%
2026-04-0635.0%
2026-04-0640.0%
2026-04-0740.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0750.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0750.0%
2026-04-0755.0%
2026-04-0760.0%
2026-04-0755.0%
2026-04-0750.0%
2026-04-0750.0%
2026-04-0745.0%
2026-04-0845.0%
2026-04-0850.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0855.0%
2026-04-0850.0%
2026-04-0850.0%
2026-04-0950.0%
2026-04-0950.0%
2026-04-0955.0%
2026-04-0950.0%
2026-04-0950.0%
2026-04-0955.0%
2026-04-1050.0%
2026-04-1045.0%
2026-04-1050.0%
2026-04-1045.0%
2026-04-1045.0%
2026-04-1040.0%
2026-04-1040.0%
2026-04-1040.0%
2026-04-1045.0%
2026-04-1050.0%
2026-04-1050.0%
2026-04-1050.0%
2026-04-1055.0%
2026-04-1055.0%
2026-04-1055.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1160.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1165.0%
2026-04-1270.0%
2026-04-1265.0%
2026-04-1260.0%
2026-04-1255.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1245.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1250.0%
2026-04-1355.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1355.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1360.0%
2026-04-1365.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1465.0%
2026-04-1465.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1460.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1455.0%
2026-04-1555.0%
2026-04-1555.0%
2026-04-1555.0%
2026-04-1560.0%
2026-04-1560.0%
2026-04-1565.0%
2026-04-1560.0%
2026-04-1565.0%
2026-04-1565.0%
2026-04-1565.0%
2026-04-1570.0%
2026-04-1570.0%
2026-04-1570.0%
2026-04-1575.0%
2026-04-1580.0%
2026-04-1675.0%
2026-04-1670.0%
2026-04-1670.0%
2026-04-1665.0%
2026-04-1665.0%
2026-04-1665.0%
2026-04-1660.0%
2026-04-1665.0%
2026-04-1660.0%
2026-04-1660.0%
2026-04-1760.0%
2026-04-1760.0%
2026-04-1755.0%
2026-04-1750.0%
2026-04-1755.0%
2026-04-1755.0%
2026-04-1750.0%
2026-04-1750.0%
2026-04-1745.0%
2026-04-1740.0%
2026-04-1740.0%
2026-04-1745.0%
2026-04-1740.0%
2026-04-1745.0%
2026-04-1740.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1840.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1845.0%
2026-04-1950.0%
2026-04-1950.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1960.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1960.0%
2026-04-1960.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1960.0%
2026-04-1960.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-1955.0%
2026-04-2055.0%
2026-04-2055.0%
2026-04-2050.0%
2026-04-2050.0%
2026-04-2050.0%
2026-04-2045.0%
2026-04-2045.0%
2026-04-2040.0%
2026-04-2035.0%
2026-04-2030.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2130.0%
2026-04-2125.0%
2026-04-2130.0%
2026-04-2130.0%
2026-04-2125.0%
2026-04-2130.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2140.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2130.0%
2026-04-2135.0%
2026-04-2240.0%
2026-04-2235.0%
2026-04-2240.0%
2026-04-2240.0%
2026-04-2245.0%
2026-04-2245.0%
2026-04-2250.0%
2026-04-2250.0%
2026-04-2250.0%
2026-04-2250.0%
2026-04-2255.0%
2026-04-2255.0%
2026-04-2255.0%
2026-04-2255.0%
2026-04-2255.0%
2026-04-2355.0%
2026-04-2360.0%
2026-04-2365.0%
2026-04-2365.0%
2026-04-2360.0%
2026-04-2355.0%
2026-04-2355.0%
2026-04-2355.0%
2026-04-2360.0%
2026-04-2460.0%
2026-04-2460.0%
2026-04-2455.0%
2026-04-2455.0%
2026-04-2460.0%
2026-04-2460.0%
2026-04-2460.0%
2026-04-2465.0%
2026-04-2460.0%
2026-04-2455.0%
2026-04-2450.0%
2026-04-2450.0%
2026-04-2445.0%
2026-04-2440.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2545.0%
2026-04-2550.0%
2026-04-2550.0%
2026-04-2545.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2545.0%
2026-04-2545.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2540.0%
2026-04-2535.0%
2026-04-2635.0%
2026-04-2635.0%
2026-04-2640.0%
2026-04-2645.0%
2026-04-2645.0%
2026-04-2650.0%
2026-04-2650.0%
2026-04-2655.0%
2026-04-2655.0%
2026-04-2650.0%
2026-04-2645.0%
2026-04-2650.0%
2026-04-2655.0%
2026-04-2655.0%
2026-04-2655.0%
2026-04-2755.0%
2026-04-2755.0%
2026-04-2750.0%
2026-04-2750.0%
2026-04-2755.0%
2026-04-2755.0%
2026-04-2760.0%
2026-04-2760.0%
2026-04-2855.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2865.0%
2026-04-2870.0%
2026-04-2865.0%
2026-04-2865.0%
2026-04-2865.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2860.0%
2026-04-2960.0%
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2026-04-2960.0%
2026-04-2955.0%
2026-04-2950.0%
2026-04-2950.0%
2026-04-2945.0%
2026-04-2945.0%
2026-04-2940.0%
2026-04-2940.0%
2026-04-3045.0%
2026-04-3040.0%
2026-04-3035.0%
2026-04-3035.0%
2026-04-3040.0%
2026-04-3040.0%
2026-04-3045.0%
2026-04-3045.0%
2026-04-3045.0%
2026-05-0150.0%
2026-05-0145.0%
2026-05-0145.0%
2026-05-0145.0%
2026-05-0150.0%
2026-05-0155.0%
2026-05-0160.0%
2026-05-0160.0%
2026-05-0155.0%
2026-05-0160.0%
2026-05-0155.0%
2026-05-0150.0%
2026-05-0150.0%
2026-05-0150.0%
2026-05-0150.0%
2026-05-0250.0%
2026-05-0250.0%
2026-05-0250.0%
2026-05-0245.0%
2026-05-0245.0%
2026-05-0240.0%
2026-05-0240.0%
2026-05-0240.0%
2026-05-0245.0%
2026-05-0245.0%
2026-05-0245.0%
2026-05-0240.0%
2026-05-0240.0%
2026-05-0245.0%
2026-05-0240.0%
2026-05-0345.0%
2026-05-0345.0%
2026-05-0350.0%
2026-05-0355.0%
2026-05-0360.0%
2026-05-0360.0%
2026-05-0360.0%
2026-05-0355.0%
2026-05-0360.0%
2026-05-0355.0%
2026-05-0360.0%
2026-05-0360.0%
2026-05-0355.0%
2026-05-0355.0%
2026-05-0355.0%
2026-05-0450.0%
2026-05-0450.0%
2026-05-0455.0%
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2026-05-0460.0%
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2026-05-0450.0%
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2026-05-0455.0%
2026-05-0555.0%
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2026-05-0560.0%
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2026-05-0565.0%
2026-05-0570.0%
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2026-05-0565.0%
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2026-05-0660.0%
2026-05-0655.0%
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2026-05-0655.0%
2026-05-0660.0%
2026-05-0655.0%
2026-05-0655.0%
2026-05-0655.0%
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2026-05-0655.0%
2026-05-0650.0%
2026-05-0645.0%
2026-05-0745.0%
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2026-05-0750.0%
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2026-05-0840.0%
2026-05-0840.0%
2026-05-0835.0%
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2026-05-0840.0%
2026-05-0845.0%
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2026-05-0850.0%
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2026-05-0840.0%
2026-05-0835.0%
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2026-05-0945.0%
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2026-05-0955.0%
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2026-05-1075.0%
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2026-05-1065.0%
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2026-05-1845.0%
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2026-05-1855.0%
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2026-05-1950.0%
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2026-05-1955.0%
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2026-05-1960.0%
2026-05-1965.0%
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2026-05-1955.0%
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2026-05-1950.0%
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2026-05-2045.0%
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2026-07-1140.0%
2026-07-1145.0%
2026-07-1145.0%
2026-07-1145.0%
2026-07-1145.0%
2026-07-1140.0%
2026-07-1135.0%
2026-07-1235.0%
2026-07-1240.0%
2026-07-1240.0%
2026-07-1235.0%
2026-07-1235.0%
2026-07-1230.0%
2026-07-1225.0%
2026-07-1225.0%
2026-07-1225.0%
2026-07-1225.0%
2026-07-1225.0%
2026-07-1225.0%
2026-07-1230.0%
2026-07-1235.0%
2026-07-1235.0%
2026-07-1635.0%
2026-07-1740.0%
2026-07-1740.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1750.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1750.0%
2026-07-1745.0%
2026-07-1850.0%
2026-07-1850.0%
2026-07-1850.0%
2026-07-1845.0%
2026-07-1845.0%
2026-07-1840.0%
2026-07-1840.0%
2026-07-1840.0%
2026-07-1845.0%
2026-07-1840.0%
2026-07-1840.0%
2026-07-1840.0%
2026-07-1845.0%
2026-07-1850.0%
2026-07-1950.0%
2026-07-1950.0%
2026-07-1955.0%
2026-07-1960.0%
2026-07-1960.0%
2026-07-1960.0%
2026-07-1960.0%
2026-07-1965.0%
2026-07-1965.0%
2026-07-1970.0%
2026-07-1965.0%
2026-07-1970.0%
2026-07-1970.0%
2026-07-1970.0%
2026-07-1970.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2075.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2075.0%
2026-07-2080.0%
2026-07-2080.0%
2026-07-2075.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2075.0%
2026-07-2075.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2070.0%
2026-07-2175.0%
2026-07-2170.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2160.0%
2026-07-2160.0%
2026-07-2160.0%
2026-07-2160.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2165.0%
2026-07-2270.0%
2026-07-2275.0%
2026-07-2275.0%
2026-07-2275.0%
2026-07-2275.0%
2026-07-2275.0%
2026-07-2270.0%
2026-07-2265.0%
2026-07-2265.0%
2026-07-2265.0%
2026-07-2265.0%
2026-07-2265.0%
2026-07-2265.0%
2026-07-2260.0%
2026-07-2260.0%
2026-07-2355.0%
2026-07-2355.0%
2026-07-2350.0%
2026-07-2345.0%
2026-07-2345.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2440.0%
2026-07-2440.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2445.0%
2026-07-2450.0%
2026-07-2450.0%
2026-07-2450.0%
2026-07-2450.0%
2026-07-2450.0%
2026-07-2450.0%
2026-07-2550.0%
2026-07-2550.0%
2026-07-2555.0%
2026-07-2555.0%
2026-07-2550.0%
2026-07-2545.0%
2026-07-2545.0%
2026-07-2545.0%
2026-07-2545.0%
2026-07-2550.0%
2026-07-2550.0%
2026-07-2555.0%
2026-07-2550.0%
2026-07-2555.0%
2026-07-2555.0%
2026-07-2655.0%
2026-07-2650.0%
2026-07-2650.0%
2026-07-2655.0%
2026-07-2650.0%
2026-07-2655.0%
2026-07-2655.0%
2026-07-2650.0%
2026-07-2655.0%
2026-07-2660.0%
2026-07-2665.0%
2026-07-2660.0%
2026-07-2655.0%
2026-07-2650.0%
2026-07-2650.0%
2026-07-2755.0%
2026-07-2750.0%
2026-07-2755.0%
2026-07-2750.0%
2026-07-2745.0%
2026-07-2750.0%
2026-07-2755.0%
2026-07-2755.0%
2026-07-2750.0%
2026-07-2755.0%
2026-07-2755.0%
2026-07-2850.0%
2026-07-2855.0%
2026-07-2855.0%
2026-07-2850.0%
2026-07-2850.0%
2026-07-2855.0%
2026-07-2860.0%
2026-07-2865.0%
2026-07-2860.0%
2026-07-2855.0%
2026-07-2855.0%
2026-07-2855.0%
2026-07-2860.0%
2026-07-2860.0%
2026-07-2960.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2960.0%
2026-07-2965.0%
2026-07-2960.0%
2026-07-2960.0%
2026-07-2960.0%
2026-07-2960.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2955.0%
2026-07-2955.0%

Calibration

Model home win %GamesPredicted avg Actual home win rateGap
0.00–0.4031 29.7% 58.1% +28.3pp
0.40–0.4510 42.3% 60.0% +17.7pp
0.45–0.50101 48.7% 39.6% -9.0pp
0.50–0.551244 52.8% 52.0% -0.7pp
0.55–0.60132 56.2% 56.8% +0.6pp
0.60–0.659 62.3% 55.6% -6.8pp
0.65–1.0020 71.3% 55.0% -16.3pp

Well-calibrated buckets have small gaps. Persistent gaps in one direction suggest re-examining the win-probability conversion (the normal-CDF standard error).